Hey Everyone -

We’re back after a long hiatus to give you the latest in climate optimism. That’s because we’re the types of climate optimists who don’t believe in spinning news, but who do believe in giving things time to unfold so it’s clearer what’s hopeful to the cause, what’s hurtful, and what just is.

This issue is relatively light on news and relatively deep on insights: we’ve been spending the past month with you, listening, learning, and speaking about the latest in climate and what it means for our future.

Want to nerd out with us in depth about any of these topics, or work with us on realizing the energy and mobility systems we want? Please reach out - we’re all ears.

WHAT’S HAPPENING

Curated finds from around the web

Climate innovation will always find a way. As the energy transition loses steam at its traditional federal agencies, it’s gaining momentum (again) in the military. The Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) at the Department of Defense is commercializing technologies to manage the grid in real-time, test out modular nuclear power, and use AI to predict the weather.  

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) have not proven to have positive climate impacts. However, with a number of new companies developing autonomous “drivers” meant to be retrofitted into privately owned passenger vehicles, somehow shared ridehailing vehicles are starting to seem like the friendlier climate option.

LA’s 2028 Olympic & Paralympic Games might actually be transit-first. As of this month, the Games venues have been announced, and in a move that one can only hope was intentional, most of the venues have excellent transit connections, taking advantage of our country’s second-largest public transportation system. Now we just need to get the Festival Trail funded so that people can walk or roll across the region to the Games… 

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THE RUNDOWN

Have we reached a tipping point?

The past month in L.A. has been one conference after another: L.A. Climate Week, Curbivore, Ride AI, Decarbonizing Industry & Transport, the list goes on. While we don’t normally speak at so many, it felt important for us during this time of chaotic market signals on climate to meet with friends and colleagues, adding anecdotes to information and attempting to separate signal from noise. 

Our key question at each event: what aspects of climate tech, policy, and finance have reached a tipping point where what happens in the short-term U.S. market won’t irreparably change what happens in the long-term or what’s happening abroad? 

The short answer is, a lot. 

For starters, one thing that’s become eminently clear is that other nations are in clean energy for the long haul - and for economic and environmental reasons. They’re perplexed by the U.S. decision to go back in time and technology and are continuing to grow their own industries - even without American innovation.  

The second thing is that the train has left the station on demand for clean energy in the U.S. Whether we call it energy abundance or security or The New Joule Order, growing loads on grids (from AI or otherwise) are causing utilities and property owners to build more (or want to build more) utility-scale and distributed renewable energy, transmission and distribution lines, and storage. The exact mix of all of the above, though, fluctuates, as entrepreneurial project developers run the obstacle course of current political and market dynamics. 

The third thing is that the technologies that are in “scale mode” (and not in “pilot mode”) are the ones that will win out over the next four years. Passenger EVs; profit-generating delivery systems; passenger autonomy; military-grade electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft; certain fuel pathways for sustainable aviation fuels, hydrogen, methanol, and ammonia; and of course, anything AI, among other technologies - rendering this list too long for a newsletter - will benefit from market momentum, plus the lack of government funding to support earlier stage technologies. 

DETOURS

Mati Carbon has been awarded the $50 million XPrize for Carbon Removal for its innovative enhanced rock weathering technology. This method accelerates natural processes to capture and store atmospheric CO₂, offering a promising solution in the fight against climate change.

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